Groningen arrive at round 7 with a mixed but goal-rich run - one win, two draws and two defeats in their last five, scoring in all five matches. Zwolle are in worse shape: three losses in five, conceding 15 goals, including a 0-7 home collapse against Feyenoord last week. Four Groningen players are sidelined, but the visitors carry three absentees of their own and have looked defensively porous throughout.
The key numbers favour the home side clearly. Groningen's model probability sits at 64%, while the market offers 1.65 - a price that holds value. Zwolle have conceded in four of their last five fixtures. Head-to-head meetings are tight historically, but Groningen's home crowd and Zwolle's current defensive fragility tip the balance.
Back Groningen to win at 1.65 (bet365/WilliamHill). The price is not generous, but the underlying numbers justify a moderate stake. Confidence sits at 3 out of 5.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 13.03.26 | Eredivisie | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 23.11.25 | Eredivisie | 2–2 | O2.5 |
| 18.05.25 | Eredivisie | 2–0 | U2.5 |
| 08.12.24 | Eredivisie | 0–0 | U2.5 |
| 05.08.23 | Club Friendlies | 0–0 | U2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service