Groningen arrive at round 9 carrying genuine momentum - two wins in five - but a defensive record that invites pressure. They have conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches and shipped 7 goals across that run. Ajax, meanwhile, have scored in all 5 of their recent outings and conceded in all 5 too, pointing to a team that plays open, high-tempo football even when results have been mixed. Three injuries for the visitors are noted but the squad depth at Ajax absorbs that comfortably.
The head-to-head record over the last five meetings gives Groningen just 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses, with Ajax taking 10 goals to Groningen's 6. Ajax have kept a clean sheet in both away fixtures in that sample. The model places Ajax's win probability at 64 percent against a market implied figure of around 52 percent at 1.91, a clear edge. Both teams have landed over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 games each, and the h2h has gone over 2.5 in 3 of 5.
Ajax away at 1.91 (bet365) is the call. The price is generous for a side the model rates as strong favourites. Back them to win outright.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 21.05.26 | Eredivisie | 2–0 | U2.5 |
| 07.03.26 | Eredivisie | 3–1 | O2.5 |
| 02.12.25 | Eredivisie | 2–0 | U2.5 |
| 14.05.25 | Eredivisie | 2–2 | O2.5 |
| 06.10.24 | Eredivisie | 3–1 | O2.5 |
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