Greece arrive in fine Nations League form, winning away at Germany and Serbia in their last two outings. Netherlands are unbeaten in their last five, scoring in every single one of those games, and they carry four injury absentees including Frenkie de Jong into this fixture. The head-to-head is short but telling: Greece have failed to score in both previous meetings, conceding four goals across the two.
The model puts over 2.5 goals at 65% probability. Two key inputs drive that number: Netherlands have gone over 2.5 in 4 of their last 5 matches and recorded BTTS in all 5, while Greece have conceded in 3 of their last 5. BTTS sits at 64% in the model, priced at 1.65 with Betano.
Main tip: Over 2.5 goals at 1.80 (Betano/BetVictor). The Dutch attacking engine, even depleted, is too consistent to keep quiet for a full 90 minutes.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 16.10.23 | UEFA European Championship Qualifiers | 0–1 | U2.5 |
| 07.09.23 | UEFA European Championship Qualifiers | 3–0 | O2.5 |
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