Greece arrive in decent shape, unbeaten in their last two Nations League outings including a 1-0 win over Germany just a week ago. Germany have won two of their last five but carry five injury absences, including Musiala and Havertz, which blunts their attacking depth considerably. Both sides have conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches, and the hosts drew 2-2 with the Netherlands three days ago.
The model puts BTTS probability at 69%. Greece scored in 4 of 5 recent games; Germany also scored in 4 of 5. Each side kept just one clean sheet in that span. In the h2h, both teams scored in 1 of the 2 meetings, but both sides have shown consistent attacking output across all competitions this autumn.
BTTS YES at 1.55-1.58 is the pick. The injury list strips Germany of creativity but they still find the net regularly, and Greece are no defensive fortress. Confidence is moderate given the recent 1-0 result between these sides.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 27.09.26 | UEFA Nations League | 0–1 | U2.5 |
| 07.06.24 | Friendlies | 2–1 | O2.5 |
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