Gil Vicente arrive unbeaten in five matches (3W 2D), conceding only 3 goals across that run and keeping 3 clean sheets. Casa Pia are in freefall: 5 losses from 5, 17 goals conceded, and they have scored in just 1 of those 5 games. The gap in form could hardly be wider. The model puts Gil Vicente's win probability at 77%, with the Draw No Bet price sitting at 1.24. In five head-to-head meetings, Casa Pia have won only once away, and the under 2.5 line is priced at 1.60, reflecting an 82% model probability for a low-scoring game. Gil Vicente win is the call. DNB HOME at 1.24 covers the draw insurance, and the price is fair given the data.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 27.04.26 | Primeira Liga | 2–1 | O2.5 |
| 13.12.25 | Primeira Liga | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 22.02.25 | Primeira Liga | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 22.09.24 | Primeira Liga | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 03.03.24 | Primeira Liga | 0–0 | U2.5 |
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