Coliseum Alfonso Pérez hosts a La Liga Round 7 clash between two sides yet to taste a win this season. Getafe arrive winless in five across all competitions, with three defeats and a defence that has conceded in every single game. Malaga are no better on the road, shipping nine goals in five outings and carrying six absentees into this fixture.
Getafe have scored in just 3 of their last 5 games and conceded in all 5. Malaga have scored in 3 of 5 and conceded in 4 of 5. Neither side has managed a win in their last five matches. The model puts the draw probability at 45 percent, well above the implied probability in the 3.10 price. Under 2.5 goals is priced at 1.44 and carries a model probability of 91 percent.
With both squads misfiring and injury lists mounting, a low-scoring stalemate is the logical outcome. The draw at 3.10 is the value play here. Bigger price, yes, but the numbers back it hard.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
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