Germany arrive under pressure after losing to Greece at home and conceding in all 5 of their last matches. Serbia are in worse shape: 4 defeats in 5, zero clean sheets, and they have also conceded in every single game of that run. Three midfielders are out for the hosts, while Serbia miss two defenders including Milenkovic, adding defensive fragility on both sides.
The model puts BTTS at 61%. Germany scored in 4 of 5 and conceded in 5 of 5. Serbia scored in 4 of 5 and conceded in 5 of 5. Neither side has kept a clean sheet across their last five outings. Over 2.5 is priced at 1.46, but BTTS at 1.70 offers better value given the model alignment.
BTTS YES at 1.70 is the main play. Both squads are leaking freely and both have shown they can find the net. The 61% model probability implies fair value around 1.64, so 1.70 carries a small edge. Verdict: back Both Teams to Score.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
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