Georgia open UEFA Nations League B Group play at home, carrying 2W-2D-1L across their last five with eight goals scored in all five matches. Three key absentees - Guliashvili, Mikautadze and Tsitaishvili - dent the attack, but the hosts still hold a clear structural edge over Northern Ireland, who managed just four goals in five outings and lost to Italy 0-2 and France 1-3 recently. Northern Ireland's away record reads 2W-1D-2L with only 4 goals for and 6 against in their last five, and they kept a clean sheet in just 2 of those games. The model lands on Georgia DNB as the core play. At 1.35 (bet365), the price reflects the favourite status without much cushion, but the underlying form gap is real. Georgia have scored in all five recent games; Northern Ireland have conceded in 3 of their last 5. Backing Georgia on Draw No Bet at 1.35 is the call.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
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