Gent arrive at round 7 on the back of four wins from five, conceding just four goals in that stretch. St. Liege have shown attacking spark - 10 goals in five games - but their defence leaks and they lost heavily at Westerlo last week. The model puts Gent's win probability at 76%, well above the implied 54% from the 1.85 price.
The head-to-head data is the real driver here. In five meetings Gent have won all five, scoring 18 goals and conceding just 1. Four of those five ended without St. Liege finding the net. St. Liege scored in all five recent games but conceded in 3 of 5, and their away defensive record is fragile.
At 1.85, Gent HOME is underpriced relative to the model's 76% probability. Take the home win. The riskier angle is BTTS NO at 1.91, backed by a 61% model probability and four clean sheets for Gent in the last five h2h matches.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 23.01.26 | First Division A | 0–4 | O2.5 |
| 25.10.25 | First Division A | 4–0 | O2.5 |
| 22.12.24 | First Division A | 0–1 | U2.5 |
| 10.11.24 | First Division A | 5–0 | O2.5 |
| 18.05.24 | First Division A | 1–4 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service