Gent open Round 3 in strong form, unbeaten in their last five across all competitions (3W 2D), including a 2-1 home win over Club Brugge last weekend. Leuven, by contrast, have lost four of their last five and conceded in every one of those five matches, shipping 18 goals in the process. Two key Leuven attackers are also sidelined.
The model puts Gent's win probability at 87%, against a market price of roughly 1.60. In head-to-head terms, Gent have scored in only 2 of the last 5 meetings and BTTS has landed just once in 5, pointing clearly away from a goals fest. The model gives BTTS YES only 13% - yet the market still offers 1.73/1.80, a clear overprice on the YES side.
Main tip: BTTS NO at 1.95. With Leuven's defence conceding freely but their attack misfiring against quality sides, and Gent keeping a clean sheet in 1 of 5 recent games, a Gent shutout is the likeliest shape of this win. Alt: Gent DNB at 1.25 for lower variance.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 07.02.26 | First Division A | 1–3 | O2.5 |
| 02.11.25 | First Division A | 4–0 | O2.5 |
| 26.01.25 | First Division A | 0–0 | U2.5 |
| 29.09.24 | First Division A | 3–0 | O2.5 |
| 12.05.24 | First Division A | 0–1 | U2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service