Genk arrive at Round 4 having scored in all 5 of their last matches and conceded in all 5, producing 13 goals for and 10 against. Beveren have lost two of their three competitive fixtures, shipping 6 goals in those defeats, and have scored in just 4 of their last 5 outings. The model puts over 2.5 goals probability at 93%, driven by Genk's zero clean sheets in 5 games and Beveren's defensive fragility on the road.
The numbers are unambiguous: Genk's last 5 matches all cleared the 2.5-goal bar, and the combined average is already above 4 goals per game. Beveren conceded 4 at Waregem last week and keep only 2 clean sheets in 5 recent games. Over 3.5 is live at 2.38, but the base case is clear.
Over 2.5 goals at 1.57 (bet365) is the main play. The model's 93% probability implies a fair price near 1.08, so 1.57 is generous value. Confidence is high.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 08.07.26 | Club Friendlies | 2–1 | O2.5 |
| 30.10.24 | Cup | 0–2 | U2.5 |
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