G.A. Eagles open their home account in Eredivisie round 3 carrying genuine momentum: a 4-1 win over Willem II followed by a 2-2 draw at Feyenoord shows a side willing to attack and capable of competing at the top. Den Haag arrive in the opposite direction, losing both competitive fixtures so far - 0-2 at AZ and 1-4 at home to Groningen - and missing three players through injury in Peupion, Barany and Hawkins.
The numbers reinforce the gap. Eagles have scored in all 5 of their last matches and produced over 2.5 goals in 4 of those 5. Den Haag have scored in only 3 of their last 5 and conceded in 3 of 5. The model puts the home win probability at 95 per cent, making the 1.73 available at bet365 a fair price for the level of edge implied.
Take G.A. Eagles on Draw No Bet at 1.30 (bet365). The DNB removes the slim draw risk at a price that still offers value given the injury-hit visitors and the hosts' early-season form. Alt: Over 2.5 goals at 1.53, backed by Eagles' attacking output and Den Haag's porous defence.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 09.02.23 | KNVB Beker | 1–0 | U2.5 |
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