Both sides arrive at this third-place fixture carrying the weight of semi-final defeats, but the underlying numbers paint a lively picture. France won 4 of their last 5 World Cup games, conceding in only 2 of those 5. England, meanwhile, scored in 4 of 5 and conceded in 3 of 5, with BTTS landing in 3 of their last 5 matches. Motivation may be mixed, but quality is not.
The key inputs: England's attack has found the net in 4 of 5 outings, and France's defence has been breached in 2 of 5 - meaning both sides carry real threat and real vulnerability. The sole head-to-head on record (Qatar 2022) ended 2-1 with BTTS confirmed. England are also missing Livramento and Henderson, thinning their defensive options.
The model points to BTTS YES as the standout angle. England's attacking output and France's own goal-scoring appetite make a blank sheet for either side unlikely. At a fixture where pride is the prize, both teams will push forward.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 11.12.22 | World Cup | 1–2 | O2.5 |
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