Fluminense arrive in poor form: 2 wins and 3 losses in their last 5, with key absences including Alisson, German Cano and Kennedy John. Palmeiras, by contrast, have won 4 of their last 5, conceding just 1 goal across that run and keeping 4 clean sheets. The model gives the away side a clear 54% win probability against 32% for the hosts.
Palmeiras conceded in only 1 of their last 5 matches, while Fluminense conceded in 4 of 5. In head-to-head terms, both sides have scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings, with 3 of those games going over 2.5 goals. The model flags over 2.5 at 98% and BTTS at 96%, numbers driven by Fluminense's defensive fragility and Palmeiras' attacking efficiency.
The main tip is Palmeiras to win at 2.62 (bet365). The form gap is stark, the defensive numbers favour the visitors heavily, and the model's 54% implies clear value at that price. Confidence sits at 3 given the semi-final context and Fluminense's home factor.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 15.08.26 | Serie A | 3–2 | O2.5 |
| 26.02.26 | Serie A | 2–1 | O2.5 |
| 23.11.25 | Serie A | 0–0 | U2.5 |
| 24.07.25 | Serie A | 1–2 | O2.5 |
| 08.12.24 | Serie A | 0–1 | U2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service