Fiorentina arrive at this Coppa Italia last-16 tie battered by three Serie A defeats, yet their only cup outing this season was a 4-1 demolition of Benevento. Pisa are a Serie B side riding a mixed run, and the Franchi crowd demands a response. When these two meet, the script tightens: two recent head-to-head clashes produced just one goal total, both clean sheets for Fiorentina, and zero BTTS.
The numbers back a cautious approach. Fiorentina have conceded in all 5 of their last 5 matches but scored in 3. Pisa have scored in 4 of 5 but face a step up in class. Over 2.5 has landed in all 5 of Fiorentina's recent games, yet the h2h tells a different, tighter story: 0 goals against in 2 meetings.
The DNB on Fiorentina at 1.16 is short but real - a top-flight side at home against a second-tier opponent with a cup mentality to restore. I accept the thin margin for the security it brings. For the risk-taker, try BTTS No at 2.30.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 23.02.26 | Serie A | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 28.09.25 | Serie A | 0–0 | U2.5 |
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