Fenerbahce arrive in good shape after progressing past Gornik Zabrze, posting four wins and a draw across their last five outings with 13 goals scored and only two conceded. Three clean sheets in that run underline a side that is controlling games rather than merely winning them. Sturm Graz bring comparable momentum: four wins and a draw, 11 goals scored and just one conceded, with four clean sheets from five. Both squads carry minor absentees but nothing that fundamentally alters their shape.
The key number is goals against: the two sides have combined to concede just three goals across ten recent matches. Sturm kept a clean sheet in four of their last five; Fenerbahce conceded in only two of five. The Over 2.5 is priced at 1.65, but the defensive profiles on both sides argue against it. Under 2.5 at 2.20 reflects the value here.
Fenerbahce are clear home favourites at 1.36-1.38, and that result looks likely. The sharper play is Under 2.5 goals at 2.20. Two well-drilled, low-conceding sides in a high-stakes qualifier rarely produce a goal-fest. Back the under.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
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