Fenerbahce arrive at this playoff first leg having beaten Sturm Graz across two legs without conceding, and they kept three clean sheets in their last five outings. A league defeat to Genclerbirligi is the only blemish. Lyon edged through against Sparta Prague on aggregate but their five-game sample shows two wins and three losses, with eight goals conceded. Five Fenerbahce players are absent through injury, but Lyon also travel without Bidstrup and Sulc.
The one head-to-head on record, a 0-0 in the Europa League in January 2025, underlines how tight this fixture runs. Fenerbahce scored in all five recent games, yet only one of those matches produced more than 2.5 goals. Lyon scored in just three of their last five. Both defences trend toward caution in European competition, and the over 2.5 line sits at 1.75-1.80, which is short enough to avoid.
Fenerbahce Draw No Bet at 1.48-1.53 is the call. You collect if they win, and you are refunded if it ends level. Lyon's away record and goal-shy tendency in Europe make this a defensible price for a side that has conceded only three times in their last five.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 23.01.25 | UEFA Europa League | 0–0 | U2.5 |
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