The Kadikoy cauldron is ready to boil - Round 4 of the Süper Lig and the Istanbul derby arrives with Fenerbahce carrying a five-man injury list including Asensio, Soyuncu and Akturkoglu. Fener have won three of their last five across all competitions but that defensive frailty is real: they conceded in 4 of those 5 games and shipped 6 goals. Besiktas arrive inconsistent but dangerous, their 6-2 demolition of Corum the most recent evidence.
The head-to-head numbers, from Fenerbahce's perspective, tell a cautionary tale: 2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses in the last five meetings, with Fener scoring in only 3 of those 5 games. Besiktas have kept 2 clean sheets in their last 5 outings and conceded in only 3. The model puts the away win probability at 45%, yet the market prices Besiktas at 4.00.
With key creative players absent for the hosts, Besiktas at 4.00 is a bold play that the numbers support. The alt is BTTS YES at 1.65 - both sides have goals in them, but the bigger price is the story tonight.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 05.04.26 | Süper Lig | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 23.12.25 | Cup | 1–2 | O2.5 |
| 02.11.25 | Süper Lig | 2–3 | O2.5 |
| 04.05.25 | Süper Lig | 0–1 | U2.5 |
| 07.12.24 | Süper Lig | 1–0 | U2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service