FC Koln arrive into this Bundesliga Round 5 derby with one win, two draws and two losses from their last five, but they have scored in all five of those matches. Gladbach are in worse shape: three defeats in their last three Bundesliga outings, conceding 13 goals across those games. Three absentees on the visitors' side add to the pressure on a defence that has already shipped 14 goals in five recent fixtures.
The numbers point firmly in one direction. Both sides have produced over 2.5 goals in four of their last five matches each, and both recent head-to-head meetings ended with goals for both teams. Koln's model probability sits at 83 percent for a home win, which is sharply above what the 2.05-2.12 match odds imply. Draw No Bet removes the one scenario where the value leaks away.
DNB on Koln at 1.55 is the call. The alternative for those wanting more return: BTTS YES at 1.44, supported by five straight BTTS games for Koln and both head-to-heads landing the same way.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 21.03.26 | Bundesliga | 3–3 | O2.5 |
| 08.11.25 | Bundesliga | 3–1 | O2.5 |
| 09.03.24 | Bundesliga | 3–3 | O2.5 |
| 22.10.23 | Bundesliga | 3–1 | O2.5 |
| 02.04.23 | Bundesliga | 0–0 | U2.5 |
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