TQL Stadium hosts a clash between two teams with zero clean sheets in their last five outings. Cincinnati are averaging better than three goals per game in that stretch, while San Jose arrive having conceded in all five recent matches and carrying two injury absences.
The numbers are stark. Cincinnati scored in all 5 of their last 5 and conceded in all 5; San Jose conceded in all 5 of theirs and scored in only 3. Every single one of Cincinnati's last 5 produced over 2.5 goals. The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 85 percent, and the market at 1.28 confirms the consensus.
Over 2.5 goals at 1.28 is the play. Both defences are sieves, Cincinnati love a shootout at home, and San Jose are too depleted to change the pattern. Lock it in.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 16.06.24 | MLS | 2–4 | O2.5 |
| 11.09.22 | MLS | 6–0 | O2.5 |
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