Late-season MLS, a home side leaking goals from every angle and a visiting Revolution who know how to hurt teams on the road. Cincinnati arrive here having shipped 14 goals in their last five games, zero clean sheets, and a squad that simply cannot keep the ball out of their net. New England, despite two heavy defeats, still carry three wins in five and scored eight times in that stretch.
The numbers scream goals. Cincinnati have gone over 2.5 in all five of their recent games, conceding in all five. New England have also hit over 2.5 in every one of their last five. In their only MLS meeting this year, Cincinnati lost 1-6 at New England. Yusuf and Harrison are absent for the visitors, but the hosts have no one to replace the holes in their own backline.
The model gives this match a 76% chance of clearing 2.5 goals, but the bigger price is New England at 3.5. They travel better than their recent form suggests, and Cincinnati at home have been an open invitation all autumn. Take the Revolution to win at 3.5.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 15.03.26 | MLS | 6–1 | O2.5 |
| 23.01.26 | Club Friendlies | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 15.06.25 | MLS | 0–1 | U2.5 |
| 06.04.25 | MLS | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 23.06.24 | MLS | 1–2 | O2.5 |
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