This FA Cup last-16 tie is a replay of a match played just four days ago, when Exmouth Town and Banbury met at Banbury and finished 0-0. Neither side arrives in convincing form. Exmouth have won none of their last three, scoring just once across those games. Banbury are winless in five, though they have shown more attacking intent in league football than they did in that first meeting.
The key number here is goals, or the absence of them. The only head-to-head on record ended 0-0, with BTTS not landing and the total staying well under 2.5. Exmouth have gone over 2.5 in just 1 of their last 3 matches and scored in only 1 of 3. Banbury have kept just 1 clean sheet in 5 outings, but their goals against tally of 10 in 5 games tells you the risk is a chaotic result rather than a clean one.
The safer read is that cup replays between lower-league sides often stay tight, and the first meeting confirmed that tendency here. Under 2.5 goals at 2.00 (Marathon) carries genuine value given the data. The price implies 50 percent probability; the evidence points higher.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 05.09.26 | FA Cup | 0–0 | U2.5 |
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