Excelsior opened their Eredivisie campaign with a 4-0 win at Cambuur, but that result flatters a side whose pre-season was built entirely on away friendlies. PSV drew at home to Sittard on matchday one and were hammered 0-4 by AZ in the Super Cup, so their form is patchy. Schouten is sidelined for the visitors. Context noted, but the head-to-head record is the anchor here. In 5 meetings Excelsior have won none, scoring 3 and conceding 16. PSV kept a clean sheet in 2 of those 5. The pattern is consistent: PSV win, they win by distance. Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of 5 h2h fixtures and in all 5 of PSV's recent games. At 1.57 for the away win, the price is short but honest. PSV DNB at 1.25 covers the draw risk if you want to sleep easier. Main tip: PSV win at 1.57.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 10.01.26 | Eredivisie | 5–1 | O2.5 |
| 27.09.25 | Eredivisie | 1–2 | O2.5 |
| 02.04.24 | Eredivisie | 0–2 | U2.5 |
| 13.01.24 | Eredivisie | 3–1 | O2.5 |
| 08.04.23 | Eredivisie | 4–0 | O2.5 |
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