Everton arrive at Goodison unbeaten across their last five outings, with three wins and two draws. They beat Crystal Palace 2-0 at home on matchday one and have conceded just three times in those five fixtures. Manchester United, by contrast, were beaten 2-0 at Hull in the league and carry five absentees into this trip, including Ugarte, Mount and Amad Diallo in midfield and attack.
The head-to-head record over the last five meetings shows Everton with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses, but United's two wins came in very different circumstances. The model puts Everton's home-win probability at 75%, against just 9% for a United victory. That gap is not reflected in a market pricing Everton at 3.30-3.40 for the win.
Draw No Bet on Everton at 2.43 (bet365) removes the draw risk while still offering a price that more than doubles the implied probability the model assigns to a United win. With United's midfield depleted and Everton yet to lose this season, this is the play.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 23.02.26 | Premier League | 0–1 | U2.5 |
| 24.11.25 | Premier League | 0–1 | U2.5 |
| 03.08.25 | Premier League Summer Series | 2–2 | O2.5 |
| 22.02.25 | Premier League | 2–2 | O2.5 |
| 01.12.24 | Premier League | 4–0 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service