Estudiantes arrive in poor shape: 1 win in their last 5 across all competitions, three defeats and four key absentees including Joaquin Correa. Flamengo, by contrast, are unbeaten in 5 (3W-2D), have scored in every one of those games and carry real continental momentum into this semi-final. The head-to-head record backs the visitors hard - Estudiantes have won 0 of the 3 previous meetings in this fixture, conceding in all three. The model puts Flamengo's win probability at 87%, against a market price of 2.15. That gap is the signal. With the home side's defence leaking in 4 of their last 5 and Flamengo scoring in all 5 of theirs, backing the Brazilians straight up is the cleanest play on the card.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 21.05.26 | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 30.04.26 | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 19.09.25 | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 2–1 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service