Estoril arrive at round 5 without a single win in their last 5 games (0W-2D-3L), having conceded in all 5 of those matches. They have kept zero clean sheets and scored in only 3 of 5. Arouca, by contrast, are in sharp form: 4 wins from their last 5, 3 clean sheets, and conceded in just 2 of 5 outings. The model probability gap is stark - 86% away win versus 3% home win. The h2h adds nuance: Estoril have zero clean sheets in 5 meetings, and Arouca won the last fixture 3-2. Arouca's DNB at 2.10 (bet365) removes draw risk on a side the model rates as overwhelming favourite. The 75% no-BTTS probability and Arouca's defensive record also align: the visitors have kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 5. Verdict: Arouca DNB at 2.10 is the model's clearest edge this round.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 06.04.26 | Primeira Liga | 3–2 | O2.5 |
| 07.11.25 | Primeira Liga | 4–3 | O2.5 |
| 16.03.25 | Primeira Liga | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 26.10.24 | Primeira Liga | 4–1 | O2.5 |
| 20.01.24 | Primeira Liga | 1–2 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service