Estonia arrive unbeaten in five (3W 2D), conceding just once across those games, while Iceland have won their two Nations League fixtures 3-0 each time but drew 1-1 with Estonia ten days ago. Both sides carry injury concerns: Sappinen and Sinyavskiy are out for the hosts, Gudmundsson and Lunddal miss for the visitors. The model sits at 92% for Under 2.5 and 90% for BTTS No - two signals pointing firmly in the same direction. Estonia kept 4 clean sheets in 5 recent outings; Iceland scored in only 3 of their last 5. Both meetings between these sides ended 1-1 with zero over-2.5 results across 2 head-to-heads. Under 2.5 at 2.08 (bet365) represents clear value against the model's 92% probability. A low-scoring Iceland win is the most likely single outcome, but the total market is where the edge lives here.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 26.09.26 | UEFA Nations League | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 08.01.23 | Friendlies | 1–1 | U2.5 |
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