England arrive at this World Cup semi-final on the back of four wins from five tournament outings, but the injury list is damaging: Guehi, James, Livramento, Henderson and Declan Rice are all absent, stripping the spine of Southgate's - or whoever's - defence and midfield. Argentina, meanwhile, have won all five of their recent matches, conceding only three goals across that run, keeping three clean sheets and shipping goals in just 2 of those 5 games. The contrast in defensive resilience is stark.
Argentina have scored in all 5 of their last 5 matches and gone over 2.5 goals in 4 of them. England have managed over 2.5 in 3 of 5, but with Rice absent the midfield filter disappears. Argentina's goals-against tally of 3 in 5 games against England's 5 in 5 tells the structural story. Bookmakers price both sides almost identically at 2.62-2.90, which looks soft on Argentina given the English absentees.
The play is Argentina Draw No Bet at 2.05 (bet365). You get Argentina to win; a draw returns your stake. With five key England players out and Argentina's defensive record the best of the remaining sides, this is value at the price. Confidence is measured - it is a semi-final - but the numbers point one way.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
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