Frankfurt arrive at this Bundesliga round 4 fixture carrying real defensive vulnerability. Four of their last five games saw them concede, and a 1-4 home defeat to Augsburg sits in that run. Four players are sidelined through injury, thinning a backline already under pressure. Freiburg, by contrast, are in flawless form: five wins from five across all competitions, conceding just three times in that stretch.
The numbers back the visitors hard. Freiburg have scored in all five recent outings and kept two clean sheets. In the head-to-head record, Frankfurt are unbeaten in five, but Freiburg have found the net in four of those five meetings, and the model gives the away side a 91 percent win probability against just 2 percent for the hosts.
At 2.75 with bet365, Freiburg away represents clear value against that implied probability. The DNB alternative at 2.08 (ah0_2) trims the risk if Frankfurt steal a point, but the straight away win is the price to back here.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 01.03.26 | Bundesliga | 2–0 | U2.5 |
| 19.10.25 | Bundesliga | 2–2 | O2.5 |
| 17.05.25 | Bundesliga | 1–3 | O2.5 |
| 14.01.25 | Bundesliga | 4–1 | O2.5 |
| 18.02.24 | Bundesliga | 3–3 | O2.5 |
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