Dortmund arrive at Bundesliga round 5 with five consecutive wins across all competitions, conceding only 4 goals across those games. Werder Bremen are without five key players through injury and shipped 15 goals in their last five outings. The two most recent head-to-head meetings both ended with Dortmund clean sheets - 3-0 at home and 2-0 away.
The numbers tighten the case. Dortmund kept 3 clean sheets in their last 5 games and conceded in only 2 of them. Bremen conceded in all 5 of their last matches. In the last 2 head-to-heads, Dortmund scored 5, conceded 0, and BTTS did not land once. The model puts Dortmund's win probability at 88%.
Draw No Bet on Dortmund at 1.10 (bet365) is the play. The price is short but the risk profile justifies it: a five-match winning run, a depleted opponent and two dominant recent h2h results leave little room for a slip.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 16.05.26 | Bundesliga | 0–2 | U2.5 |
| 13.01.26 | Bundesliga | 3–0 | O2.5 |
| 25.01.25 | Bundesliga | 2–2 | O2.5 |
| 31.08.24 | Bundesliga | 0–0 | U2.5 |
| 09.03.24 | Bundesliga | 1–2 | O2.5 |
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