Djurgarden arrive at this home fixture unbeaten in their last four Allsvenskan outings, winning three of them. They have kept three clean sheets in their last five matches across all competitions. Vasteras SK travel to Stockholm carrying four absentees - Nsabiyumva, Ring, Boudah and Diallo - a significant dent in their squad depth at this stage of the season.
The numbers favour the hosts clearly. Djurgarden scored in 4 of their last 5 matches; Vasteras conceded in 2 of their last 5. The model puts Djurgarden's win probability at 65 percent, with the home-or-draw figure reaching 84 percent. Vasteras have kept three clean sheets in five recent outings, but their attacking output against top-half sides remains untested here.
Draw No Bet on Djurgarden at 1.19 (bet365) removes the draw risk from a side the market already prices at 1.45 to win outright. That 65 percent win probability against a depleted visitor justifies the reduced price. The alt play is Over 2.5 goals at 1.48, backed by a model probability of 64 percent and both sides averaging 9 goals scored in their last five.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 07.02.26 | Club Friendlies | 0–1 | U2.5 |
| 25.01.25 | Club Friendlies | 3–3 | O2.5 |
| 28.10.24 | Allsvenskan | 2–1 | O2.5 |
| 05.05.24 | Allsvenskan | 0–2 | U2.5 |
| 27.01.24 | Club Friendlies | 0–0 | U2.5 |
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