Dinamo Zagreb head into this second leg level at 1-1 on aggregate, holding home advantage at a ground where they have not lost in five recent outings. Their pre-season numbers are skewed by friendlies, but the competitive data is clear: they drew in Thun without being particularly troubled, and they now have the crowd, the pitch and the pressure of qualification working in their favour. Thun arrive with two injuries confirmed - Genis Montolio and Mats Seiler - and zero clean sheets across their last five matches.
Zagreb's last five games produced 17 goals for and only 3 against, with 3 clean sheets. Thun have conceded in all 5 of their last 5 matches and kept no clean sheets in that run. The 1X2 market prices Zagreb at 1.40, which represents a fair reflection of their structural edge in a tie they control.
The call is Zagreb to win the match at 1.40 (bet365). They need a result to progress, they have the home fortress, and Thun's defensive record offers little resistance. DNB Zagreb at 1.15 covers the draw and cuts exposure on what is still a competitive tie.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 21.07.26 | UEFA Champions League | 1–1 | U2.5 |
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