Derby arrive at Pride Park carrying real damage: four losses in their last five Championship outings, conceding ten goals in that run, and four absentees on the injury list including Clarke and Travis. West Brom are no world-beaters, but they have scored in all five of their recent matches and carry a model probability of 62 percent for the win. The head-to-head record from Derby's perspective shows one win, one draw and zero losses across two meetings - close, tight football with just three total goals.
The key numbers tilt toward the visitors. Derby's DNB price sits at 2.00 (bet365), West Brom's at 1.78. The model puts the away side at 62 percent to win outright, which implies a fair DNB price around 1.61 - the 1.78 on offer carries genuine edge. Derby have conceded in four of five recent games and kept only one clean sheet.
West Brom DNB at 1.78 is the call. The hosts are leaky, short-handed and low on confidence. The visitors have scored in every recent game. Lay the draw risk and back West Brom to get the job done.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 23.01.26 | Championship | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 13.09.25 | Championship | 0–1 | U2.5 |
| 21.04.25 | Championship | 1–3 | O2.5 |
| 26.12.24 | Championship | 2–1 | O2.5 |
| 23.08.22 | League Cup | 1–0 | U2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service