Derby arrive at this Championship Round 3 fixture without a win in five outings across all competitions, collecting zero victories, two draws and three defeats. Three of those five games produced over 2.5 goals, and they have kept no clean sheets whatsoever. Swansea, by contrast, have two clean sheets in their last five and held Sheffield United to a goalless draw in their most recent Championship outing. In the head-to-head, Derby have won both recent meetings, but Swansea were missing nothing like the defensive problems Derby currently carry, with Matt Clarke, Derry Murkin and Patrick Agyemang all sidelined. The model places away win probability at 57 percent. Derby have zero wins in five; Swansea have two clean sheets in five and a win at Stoke already banked. The DNB removes draw risk on a side the model strongly favours. Swansea DNB at 2.20 is the play.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 14.02.26 | Championship | 2–0 | U2.5 |
| 25.11.25 | Championship | 1–2 | O2.5 |
| 05.04.25 | Championship | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 27.11.24 | Championship | 1–2 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service