Deportes Tolima arrive at this Libertadores last-16 tie in strong domestic form: 4 wins from 5, scoring in all 5 games. Independiente del Valle bring a perfect 5-from-5 run, though two absentees (Villar, Arroyo Jean) weaken their squad. In the two previous Libertadores meetings, Tolima hold a W1 D1 record from the home side's perspective.
The numbers that drive the model: Tolima conceded in all 5 recent matches, zero clean sheets. Del Valle scored in all 5. BTTS landed in 5 of 5 Tolima games and 1 of 5 Del Valle games - yet the defensive frailty of the hosts is the decisive input. The model outputs 96% probability for both teams to score, and 98% for over 2.5 goals.
Main tip: BTTS Yes at 1.95 (bet365). The convergence of Tolima's leaky backline and Del Valle's clinical attack makes this the clearest signal on the card. Confidence 4.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 05.05.22 | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 14.04.22 | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 2–2 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service