Deportivo A Coruna are back in La Liga and the early evidence is cautious - two draws in their opening two league games, both ending 1-1. Valencia arrive in even worse shape, winless in two Liga starts with a loss to Betis and a goalless draw against Celta. Two newly promoted or returning sides still finding their footing, and the tension of that situation bleeds into the numbers.
Coruna have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 5 matches; Valencia have managed just 1 in 5. Valencia have scored in only 2 of their last 5 games. The model puts the under 2.5 probability at 99 percent and the draw at 64 percent. The three-way odds price the draw at 2.96, which is genuine value against that backdrop.
With both squads still gelling and key absences on each side - Yeremay Hernandez out for Coruna, De Haas and Diego Lopez missing for Valencia - a cagey 1-1 or 0-0 feels the most natural outcome. Take the draw at 2.96.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
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