Riazor is buzzing. Dep. A Coruna arrive at Matchday 6 unbeaten in five Liga games, grinding out three draws and picking up two wins, with Jonathan Asp Jensen and Noe Carrillo sidelined but the team's spirit clearly intact. Sevilla come in with three wins from five but lost at home to Atletico and have Ruben Vargas out.
Coruna have scored in all 5 of their last five matches and conceded in all 5, posting 9 goals for and 6 against. Sevilla scored in all 5 of their last five too, conceding in 4 of 5. Both sides carry real attacking threat, yet the model gives Coruna a 49% home-win chance - well above the 41% implied by the 2.45 price.
The numbers back the home side. Coruna's unbeaten run, a goal-hungry attack and home crowd support make 2.45 a genuine edge. Commit to the home win at that price.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
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