Denmark host Portugal in UEFA Nations League A Round 3 carrying four injury absences in midfield, including Eriksen and Norgaard. Portugal arrive with three wins from five recent outings and a clean sheet in the only head-to-head on record, though that 1-0 went Denmark's way in March 2025. Form and squad depth point clearly to the visitors.
The model puts Portugal's win probability at 83%, against a market price of 2.00. Denmark's last five games produced 14 goals combined, but three of their five clean sheets came at home - so a tight defensive display is not impossible. Still, Portugal scored in 3 of 5 recent games and conceded in all 3 of their away fixtures, signalling a side that stays active.
At 2.00, Portugal away is the call. The Draw No Bet price of 1.44 is tighter but still reflects value given the model's 93% away-win-or-draw probability. Tip: Portugal to win at 2.00.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 20.03.25 | UEFA Nations League | 1–0 | U2.5 |
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