Cyprus come into this Nations League C clash in decent shape: two wins and two draws from their last five, including a 2-0 home victory over Armenia just three days ago. Latvia are struggling badly, with three losses in five and only two goals scored across that run. The model gives Cyprus a 69% win probability and a 93% chance of at least a point.
The key numbers point firmly to goals being scarce. Both teams have kept things tight in their head-to-head meetings: two games, two draws, zero over-2.5 outcomes. Cyprus have gone over 2.5 just once in their last five, Latvia once too. The model puts under 2.5 goals at 72% and BTTS-No at 80%. Latvia have scored in only 2 of their last 5 matches.
The model's primary verdict is a Cyprus home win. With odds absent from the feed, back them via DNB to protect against the 24% draw chance. The under 2.5 is the natural companion - both sides trend low-scoring and the h2h backs it fully.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 28.09.26 | UEFA Nations League | 0–0 | U2.5 |
| 21.03.24 | Friendlies | 1–1 | U2.5 |
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