Crystal Palace head into this Premier League round-6 fixture without Jean-Philippe Mateta and Dean Henderson among others, and their recent form is patchy at best: two wins, one draw and two losses across five games. Nottingham arrive with a positive result at Aston Villa behind them and a resilient draw at Liverpool, though they have managed to score in only 2 of their last 5 outings and conceded in 4 of those.
The head-to-head record is the loudest signal here. In 5 meetings, Crystal Palace have won zero, drawn 4 and lost 1, with both sides scoring in 4 of those 5 games. The model puts Nottingham as the more likely winner at 41% versus Palace at 29%, and the draw at 30%. Under 2.5 goals lands at 65% probability. Palace are priced equally to Nottingham at 2.62, which looks generous for the away side.
Draw No Bet on Nottingham at 1.88 (bet365) removes the draw risk in a fixture where Palace rarely beat this opponent. Modest confidence given how tight these sides have historically been.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 01.02.26 | Premier League | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 24.08.25 | Premier League | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 24.08.25 | Premier League | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 05.05.25 | Premier League | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 21.10.24 | Premier League | 1–0 | U2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service