Crystal Palace open their Europa League campaign at home against Lech Poznan, a side they have never previously met. Palace arrive in mixed form: two wins and three defeats in five outings, shipping 11 goals in the process. Critically, four forwards are sidelined - Mateta, Nketiah, Sarr and Riad - which blunts the attack. Lech, meanwhile, have won three of their last five and scored in every single one of those games.
The goals data points firmly towards goals in this one. Palace have gone over 2.5 in 4 of 5 recent matches; Poznan match that figure exactly. Both sides have conceded in 4 of their last 5. BTTS has landed in 3 of 5 for Palace and 4 of 5 for Lech. Palace hold a significant class advantage, however, and the AH -1 line at 1.62 reflects a market that still expects a comfortable home win.
With four strikers out, Palace will not run riot, but their Premier League quality should be enough to cover a one-goal handicap. AH HOME -1 at 1.62 is the main play. For the alternative, BTTS YES at 1.85 suits the open, goal-heavy patterns both sides have shown.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
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