Cruzeiro host Flamengo in a Brazilian Serie A round-24 clash that already had a dress rehearsal ten days ago, when the pair drew 1-1 in the Libertadores at Belo Horizonte. Cruzeiro are unbeaten in their last four across all competitions, but four injury absences - including keeper Cassio and winger Sinisterra - thin the squad at a critical moment. Flamengo arrive unbeaten in four, with a stunning 5-1 away demolition of Mirassol on their latest Serie A outing, and their own walking wounded list is shorter.
The numbers back Flamengo. The model puts them at 56% to win outright, against just 21% for Cruzeiro. In four head-to-heads Cruzeiro have scored in only 2 of 4 meetings, while conceding in 3 of 4. Flamengo's DNB price of 1.65 reflects the favourite tag, but the 79% away-win-or-draw probability justifies the price. Both sides have conceded in three of their last four, so goals are likely on both ends.
I am taking Flamengo DNB at 1.65. If Flamengo win or draw, the bet lands - and the data says that happens almost four times in five. For the bolder punter, BTTS YES at 1.77 is the alt: both teams have scored in 3 of their last 4 games each, and this fixture already produced goals at both ends ten days ago.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 20.08.26 | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 2–1 | O2.5 |
| 13.08.26 | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 12.03.26 | Serie A | 2–0 | U2.5 |
| 03.10.25 | Serie A | 0–0 | U2.5 |
| 04.05.25 | Serie A | 2–1 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service