Cruzeiro head into this Libertadores last-16 tie with five absentees, including key attackers Sinisterra and Pec Gabriel. Their recent form shows only 1 BTTS in 5 games and just 1 over 2.5. Flamengo arrive unbeaten in 5, having scored in all five matches, and carry a 12-4 goal advantage across those games. In the head-to-head record from Cruzeiro's perspective, Flamengo have won 3 of the last 5 meetings, with Cruzeiro scoring in only 2 of those 5 clashes. The model places Flamengo's win probability at 55%, against odds of 2.60 at bet365. That is clear positive value. Over 2.5 goals sits at 85% model probability - the price of 2.08 is fair but the BTTS angle at 1.75 offers a cleaner entry given both sides have conceded in recent games and Flamengo scored in all 5 of their last matches.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 12.03.26 | Serie A | 2–0 | U2.5 |
| 03.10.25 | Serie A | 0–0 | U2.5 |
| 04.05.25 | Serie A | 2–1 | O2.5 |
| 07.11.24 | Serie A | 0–1 | U2.5 |
| 30.06.24 | Serie A | 2–1 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service