Coventry arrive at round 6 having won just once in their last five across all competitions, scoring only twice and conceding ten. Four of those five results were defeats, and the attacking injury list - Haji Wright among those out - strips whatever little threat they carried. Newcastle, by contrast, have scored in all five of their recent outings and kept two clean sheets, winning three times in the same stretch.
The model puts Newcastle's win probability at 84 per cent. Coventry have scored in only 2 of their last 5 matches; Newcastle have scored in all 5 of theirs. The visitors carry a goals-for tally of 8 against 7 conceded in that period, while Coventry managed just 2 goals scored. Newcastle DNB is available at 1.57 on bet365, which looks fair value given the gap in quality and fitness.
Back Newcastle Draw No Bet at 1.57. If they win - and the data says they should - the stake is returned only on a draw, removing the one slim risk. The alt play is BTTS No at 2.25: Coventry have failed to score in 3 of their last 5, and a blank from the hosts is the most likely outcome here.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service