Round 8 of the Süper Lig, and Corum arrive here off a ruthless 3-0 road win over Gaziantep, a side that had already put five past Samsunspor earlier in the season. Rizespor, meanwhile, just shipped three at home to Fenerbahce without reply, and they have scored in only 3 of their last 5 games. Two very different moods walking into this one.
The numbers back Corum hard. Over their last 5 matches they have scored 14 goals, hit over 2.5 in all 5 games and kept 2 clean sheets. Rizespor have conceded in 4 of their last 5. The model puts Corum's win probability at 65 per cent, yet the price sits at 2.04 - that is value you cannot leave on the table. DNB protects the bet at 1.52 if you want a safety net.
I am backing Corum to win at 2.04 (bet365). The gap in form, goals scored and defensive solidity is too wide to ignore. Confidence is solid but not blind - Rizespor did beat Eyupspor away and can hurt teams on the break.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
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