Coritiba arrive at this Round 26 fixture riding three wins from their last five, beating Corinthians and Remo in recent weeks. Mirassol, meanwhile, are winless in five, shipping 10 goals in that run and carrying four injury absences into the game.
The numbers back the hosts hard. Coritiba's model probability sits at 58% for a home win, while Mirassol have zero wins in their last five and conceded in all five of those outings. In the head-to-head, Coritiba have scored in only 2 of 3 meetings, but Mirassol arrive here in far worse shape than in any of those clashes.
At 2.40, the home win is a genuine value play. The model gives Coritiba a near 3-in-5 chance, yet the price implies just under 42%. With Mirassol's leaky defence and a depleted squad, back Coritiba to take the three points.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 19.03.26 | Serie A | 0–1 | U2.5 |
| 06.11.24 | Serie B | 4–1 | O2.5 |
| 20.07.24 | Serie B | 0–1 | U2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service