Round 22 of the Serie A and Coritiba welcome a Chapecoense side that arrives battered, winless in five and carrying a squad stripped thin by four absentees. The Coxa have their own wounds - three losses in five - but they are at home, where the crowd and the pitch give them something to hold onto against a visitor this fragile.
The numbers frame it clearly. Chapecoense have scored in just 1 of their last 5 matches and conceded in 4 of those same 5. They have shipped 10 goals in that run with zero wins. Coritiba, meanwhile, hold a 2W-2D-1L record across the last five head-to-heads and the model puts the home win probability at 67 percent, well above what the 1.65 price implies.
Chapecoense are short of bodies, short of goals and short of confidence. Coritiba are imperfect but they are home favourites for good reason. I am taking the home win at 1.65 and accepting the risk that comes with a team still finding consistency.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 11.02.26 | Serie A | 3–3 | O2.5 |
| 09.08.25 | Serie B | 0–0 | U2.5 |
| 12.04.25 | Serie B | 1–2 | O2.5 |
| 17.11.24 | Serie B | 2–1 | O2.5 |
| 27.07.24 | Serie B | 1–0 | U2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service