Round 30 of Serie A brings two sides bleeding form to Curitiba. Coritiba have lost three of their last five, shipping 16 goals in that stretch, while Botafogo arrive having won just once in five and conceded in 4 of those games. Both squads are hurting, but the home side's defensive collapse is the dominant story here.
The numbers scream goals. Coritiba conceded in all 5 of their last five matches and have zero clean sheets in that run, conceding 16 times. Every single one of those five games went over 2.5. Botafogo saw BTTS land in 3 of 5 recent outings, and the head-to-head shows BTTS in 3 of the last 5 meetings. The model puts BTTS probability at 65 % and the market offers 1.62 at bet365.
Both teams to score at 1.62 is the play. Coritiba cannot keep a clean sheet right now, and Botafogo have scored in 3 of their last 5. The price is fair for what the data is telling us loud and clear.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 12.04.26 | Serie A | 2–2 | O2.5 |
| 30.11.23 | Serie A | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 30.07.23 | Serie A | 4–1 | O2.5 |
| 18.09.22 | Serie A | 2–0 | U2.5 |
| 29.05.22 | Serie A | 1–0 | U2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service