Corinthians arrive at Neo Quimica Arena on the back of five straight defeats, yet they face a Vitoria side ravaged by six absentees and with no wins in their last two. The home crowd smells blood, and the head-to-head record gives them every reason to believe. Corinthians have not lost any of the last five meetings with Vitoria, winning three and drawing two, conceding just 3 goals across those games. Their recent form is dreadful, yes, but Vitoria's injury list is brutal: Fabiano, Nathan Mendes, Ramon, Riccieli, Baralhas and Anderson all absent. The model puts home-or-draw at 75%, and the h2h points firmly to a compact, controlled result. BTTS landed in only 2 of 5 head-to-heads. Under 2.5 is the smart play at 1.74, but the real value is backing Corinthians DNB at 1.22: a safety net on the side history says does not lose this fixture.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 19.04.26 | Serie A | 0–0 | U2.5 |
| 25.10.25 | Serie A | 0–1 | U2.5 |
| 01.06.25 | Serie A | 0–0 | U2.5 |
| 09.11.24 | Serie A | 1–2 | O2.5 |
| 05.07.24 | Serie A | 3–2 | O2.5 |
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