Corinthians host Rosario Central in the Libertadores last 16, second leg, after a goalless draw in Argentina. The Brazilians are patchy - two wins, two losses and a draw in five recent outings - and carry six absentees, including Andre and Vitinho. Rosario arrive unbeaten in five (3W, 2D, 0L), with four clean sheets in that run.
The model puts away-win probability at 71% and away-win-or-draw at 88%. Rosario have conceded in just 1 of their last 5 games, keeping the aggregate score at 0-0. Corinthians scored in only 3 of 5 recent matches despite home advantage. Under 2.5 lands at 1.36-1.40, reflecting the low-scoring pattern on both sides.
Verdict: Rosario Central DNB at 3.20-3.30 is the play. The model's 71% away-win probability versus an implied 30% from the price is a clear edge. With six Corinthians players out and a near-impenetrable Rosario backline, the Argentine side to advance without a safety net.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 14.08.26 | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 0–0 | U2.5 |
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